Q4 2025 Crypto Outlook

Key Takeaways

• The debate continues over whether the traditional four-year crypto cycle still matters, or if global macroeconomic forces are now the primary driver.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve has begun cutting rates, and more easing is expected before year-end, which could create a friendlier environment for risk assets like crypto.
• If the four-year cycle remains intact, Q4 could mark the climax of the bull phase, with the potential for an explosive move higher followed by the start of the next bear market.

Macro and Treasuries Take Centre Stage as the Year Winds Down

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, a key question is emerging for investors and analysts alike: is the traditional four-year crypto cycle still driving the market, or has crypto become just another asset class moving with the global economy?

Halvings, protocol upgrades and internal innovation have long been central to crypto’s market structure. But recent price action suggests that broader economic forces such as interest rates, inflation and fiscal policy are now setting the tone.

Alongside these factors, treasury companies building positions in assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are playing an increasingly important role in market momentum. Their steady accumulation signals a new phase of institutional integration that sits outside the old four-year rhythm.

Assets held by Treasury companies as a percentage of the total supply show SOL and ETH have increased significantly

With much of the crypto-native excitement already behind us, attention has shifted to central banks, government spending, corporate treasuries and investor sentiment around the global financial outlook.

Recent Price Action: The Pullback

Crypto markets experienced a solid rally in August and early September. Optimism surrounding a potential rate cut helped push Bitcoin and other assets to multi-month highs. However, that momentum faded quickly once the cut materialised.

The rally appears to have gotten ahead of itself. Sentiment cooled, and price levels corrected accordingly. This move has mirrored broader market trends, with global stock markets also facing a decline in late September as investors reassessed the economic outlook and central bank direction.

The Fed, Rate Cuts and the Road Ahead

The U.S. Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first reduction in over a year. The move was widely expected, and while markets initially reacted positively, crypto prices showed only a muted response as much of the decision had already been priced in.

The focus now is on whether more cuts will follow before year-end. Many expect one or two, but the Fed has made it clear that it will remain flexible. If inflation holds steady and growth slows, more easing could arrive. If conditions stay firm, the pace may be slower. At the same time, rising U.S. government spending ahead of the 2026 midterms is adding money into the system, which often supports risk assets like crypto.

The crypto prediction market Polymarket is expecting another Federal Reserve rate cut in October

Looking further ahead, Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends in May 2026. Investors are watching closely for the possibility of a Trump-aligned successor who may favour looser monetary policy and more rate cuts. Such a shift would likely mean easier financial conditions and add weight to the idea that crypto now moves in step with global financial cycles rather than its old four-year pattern.

Q4 Outlook: Base Case, Risks and Possibilities

As the final quarter unfolds, crypto’s direction will be shaped almost entirely by the macro environment. The major crypto-native drivers have largely run their course. ETFs have launched, institutional players have entered, and regulatory progress has been made. What happens next depends on the broader economic backdrop.

The base case for Q4 is that further interest rate cuts will arrive before year-end. This would add more support for risk assets and could drive Bitcoin and other leading tokens back toward their 2025 highs. With government spending also increasing ahead of the 2026 midterms, conditions appear broadly supportive for markets.

At the same time, there is the question of whether the four-year cycle still carries weight. If it does, then Q4 could be the climax of the current bull phase. History suggests this would mean an explosive final leg higher, potentially followed by the beginning of a new bear market as the cycle turns once more.

Days since the halving for the past 3 cycles suggest a top in the market is soon

Final Word: Macro is the Main Event

We are likely in the later stages of a macro-driven crypto trend rather than at the beginning of a fresh cycle. Most of the key crypto catalysts have already played out. The future trajectory now depends on how central banks and governments navigate the global economy.

With a potential shift towards lower interest rates, there is room for crypto to hold its ground and potentially push higher. But the path forward is not guaranteed to be smooth. Markets remain reactive and expectations are fragile.

Heading into Q4, crypto is no longer responding primarily to internal developments. The major events now lie in the hands of central bankers and fiscal policymakers. For now, those forces appear cautiously supportive.